But what if you don't get the best?
My post on making money breeding horses is still a work in progress and will come soon but I find myself consumed by this question today. You can have the best genetics around but what about the elusive X-factor that makes a superstar?
Poetin II- part of a genetic goldmine dynasty, but you've got to have the X-factor too!
Let's assume you're a responsible breeder, maybe a small breeder with just one or two mares. You put time and effort into your mare choice and your mare has respectable bloodlines, good temperament, movement and conformation. You spend hours researching stallion choices and as a result have picked an excellent frozen semen husband for your mare, you've selected based on the idea of a complimentary cross. You've taken a critical look at your mare, worked out her positives and her negatives, and picked a stallion based on that.
You've put down say, $3500 in semen and insemination costs, perhaps a further $3000 to get your mare through her pregnancy remembering vet bills, special feeds, foaling equiptment, imunisations and a 'disaster fund' that you've got waiting just in case. It's roughly been 340 days and finally, after putting you through nights of sleeplessness and false alarms and days of fear and worry ..... your mare has given birth.
For the sake of making things easier, there was no dystocia, everything went smoothly, the IgG came back with good levels and you're now speculatively looking at the foal that you've produced.
And it's really goddamn average.
Sure it's cute, find me a baby who isn't. Sure those knees will probably come back a bit as your baby grows. Sure his temperament is lovely and you can't stop showering his perfect little muzzle with kisses.
But you can still tell. Your foal isn't flashy, it doesn't move that nicely, it's a foal who would blend into a crowd given half a chance. And you have barn blindness ... to an extend, I mean you love your baby, but it's not like you're stupid.
So you have to ask yourself the question: Can you judge a foal from birth, or do you need to wait and see what it's like later on.
I think the fairly obvious answer to this is that it's horses for courses. Some stallions make flashy foals, others don't. Some foals stop being average, they grow up and you go OH WOW. Some don't. Some foals are born being little superstars- big, lovely, amazing movers- but that doesn't mean a damn thing once they grow up. Rideability, temperament and conformation mean a lot more than just having a flashy foal. The flashy ones don't always stay flashy, either.
At the end of the day you can breed the best to the best and not get the best, no matter how hard you work, how much money you spend or how hard you research. Even the greatest studs in Europe breeding the greatest horses in the world ... they get average ones too.
It always amazes me how not alike siblings can be, although I suppose it shouldn't be too bizarre. Look at the Sandro Hit/Poesie cross. Okay so Samba Hit I, II, II and VIIIIIIIII are all very nice, but none of them have been Poetin. None have had that special magic. It's a great cross, but the genetic masterpiece part of it? Fluke.
I think this really sums up the 'hope for the best' part of the old adage. Breeding is a lottery. Even providing everything goes well, not all foals are superstars, not all horses are superstars.
I can think of only one absolute 100% sure way to get a superstar in your barn ....
Go and buy one.
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